WEI Sichao, GAO Shen, FAN Zijie
2026, 0(1): 78-93.
Infectious diseases pose significant threats to health, economic growth, and social welfare. Public health expenditure, with its preventive and treatment functions, plays an important role in controlling infectious diseases.By constructing a dynamic general equilibrium framework that captures the endogenous interactions between infectious diseases and the economy, this paper analyzes the comprehensive impacts of the scale(the proportion of total output) and structure(the allocation ratio between preventive and curative expenditures) of public health expenditure on health, the economy, and welfare.Theoretical research indicates that the effectiveness of public health expenditure is influenced by the elasticity of the healthy labor ratio with respect to the expenditure.Adjusting the expenditure scale may lead to conflicts among health, economic, and welfare objectives, whereas modifying the expenditure structure facilitates the coordinated achievement of these three objectives.Numerical simulations based on the Chinese data show that both expanding the scale of public health expenditure and optimizing its structure(increasing preventive expenditures while reducing curative expenditures) have positive effects on health, the economy, and welfare.However, compared with expanding the expenditure scale, optimizing the expenditure structure yields more significant effects and can avoid short-run declines in output and welfare.Therefore, this paper suggests that priority should be given to adjusting the expenditure structure.This approach can more effectively improve health, promote economic output, and enhance welfare without increasing the fiscal burden, thereby facilitating the integration of the public health system into China's overall development strategy.