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  • Digital Finance Empowers the Modernization of Fiscal Governance: Logical Mechanisms,Practical Challenges,and Implementation Pathways
    WANG Xueyun, ZHANG Minxiang, ZHOU Zhiqiang
    2026, 0(9): 5-18.
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    The rapid development of digital technology and the deepening reform of fiscal and taxation systems have jointly propelled the modernization of fiscal governance to a critical juncture in institutional transformation.Within the framework of institutional change theory,this paper systematically examines the differentiated pathways of institutional evolution in Guangdong,Fujian,and Shandong provinces through comparative case studies and policy text analysis.It examines in depth the underlying logic by which digital finance empowers the modernization of fiscal governance,arguing that the unique attributes of data—such as non-rivalrousness,network effects,and complex ownership—mean that digital finance fundamentally enables“governance restructuring”rather than merely“digitalization of processes.”The study identifies four structural challenges:lagging institutional supply,hindered data value realization,fragmented platform ecosystems,and misalignment between technological governance demands and capabilities. These issues stem from a systemic contradiction characterized by“technology leading ahead,institutions lagging behind,and governance capacity gaps.”To address the dual objectives of“supporting Chinese-style modernization”and“preventing systemic fiscal risks,”the paper proposes coordinated efforts across four dimensions:establishing a data-sharing system based on“three-rights separation,”creating a three-stage mechanism for data value enhancement,promoting integration and restructuring of platform ecosystems,and advancing the fusion of new technologies driven by practical application scenarios. This approach aims to provide both theoretical insights and practical guidance for deepening fiscal and taxation system reforms.
  • How Does ESG Performance Attract Patient Capital? Evidence Based on Dimensional Decomposition and Capital Heterogeneity
    TANG Wei, FAN Xiaoxue
    2026, 0(9): 19-34.
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    Against the backdrop of sustainability becoming a global consensus,how corporate environmental,social,and governance(ESG)performance influences investor decision-making has emerged as a critical issue.Unlike existing research,which largely focuses on the overall effects of ESG,this study uses data from Chinese A-share listed companies from 2015 to 2023 to empirically examine the effects and mechanisms through which corporate ESG performance attracts patient capital from a dimension-decomposition perspective.The findings reveal that good ESG performance significantly attracts patient capital,with this effect primarily driven by the governance(G)dimension,demonstrating a clear“governance premium.”Further analysis indicates that ESG performance exerts a stronger influence on equity-based patient capital than on debt-based patient capital,suggesting heterogeneity in how different types of capital respond to ESG signals.In terms of mechanisms,ESG primarily exerts its influence through two pathways:alleviating information asymmetry and reducing investment risk.In addition,environmental regulation stringency,analyst attention,and R&D investment intensity positively moderate this relationship.This study provides new evidence,grounded in the governance dimension,for understanding the impact of ESG on long-term capital allocation,while also offering guidance for firms to improve their ESG practices and direct capital toward supporting sustainable innovation and the development of new-quality productive forces.
  • Research on the Impact of New Quality Productive Forces on Income Distribution:Empirical Evidence from 271 Prefecture-level Cities
    ZHANG Hongming, WANG Rongdang, FU Qiang
    2026, 0(9): 35-48.
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    In the context of digital technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data reshaping the global productivity landscape,developing new quality productive forces has become an important strategic choice for countries to break through growth bottlenecks and gain competitive advantages. Throughout history,every transformation in productivity has had a significant impact on income distribution. However,new quality productive forces affects income distribution remains to be empirically tested. Accordingly,this paper uses panel data from China's prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2023 to deeply analyze the impact of new quality productive forces on income distribution and its mechanism through the establishment of a two-way fixed-effects model.The benchmark regression results show that new quality productive forces can significantly narrow the income distribution gap and optimize income distribution. These regression results remain valid after a series of robustness checks,including variable substitution and exclusion of special cities.Meanwhile,after considering endogeneity,the impact of new quality productive forces on income distribution remains significant.The results of the mechanism analysis show that new quality productive forces can optimize income distribution through industrial structure upgrading,job creation,and institutional environment improvement.The results of heterogeneity analysis indicate that the impact of new quality productive forces on income distribution varies depending on the level of economic development,intelligence,city size,and financial development level.Further analysis results show that new quality productive forces has a significant impact on resource allocation efficiency,industrial chain resilience,and high-quality economic development.Based on the above conclusions,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions such as continuously cultivating and developing new-quality productivity,establishing mechanisms for industrial structure upgrading,job creation,and institutional environment improvement,and implementing differentiated policies.This study clarifies the internal mechanism between new quality productive forces and income distribution,not only enriching the economic and social effects of newquality productivitve force but also further expanding the boundaries of research on factors affecting income distribution.
  • Construction Path of Long-term Government Debt Management Mechanism in China:Based on the Perspective of High-quality Development
    WEN Laicheng, WANG Hui
    2026, 0(9): 49-62.
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    The 15th Five-Year Plan period marks a critical phase for China to achieve basic modernization.As a vital policy instrument for raising construction funds and regulating national economic and social development,government debt's scale and structure,fund utilization efficiency,information transparency,accountability mechanisms,and other management aspects directly impact the prevention of systemic fiscal and financial risks as well as the stable operation of the macroeconomy.Therefore,it is imperative to establish a sustainable management mechanism aligned with high-quality development. Grounded in this practical need,this paper systematically reviews the current state of government debt development in China and identifies several persistent issues in the establishment of a long-term management mechanism.These problems include the rapid growth of local government bond issuance and the failure to align debt management with the nation's high-quality development goals for 2035 and 2050,as well as the lack of a dynamic equilibrium mechanism that balances security requirements with high-quality development objectives.As government debt scales expand rapidly,the structural contradictions embedded deep within the fiscal management system have become increasingly prominent,giving rise to medium- and long-term fiscal risks and potential hazards that run counter to the nation's goal of high-quality economic and social development.Building on this foundation,the paper proposes establishing a new risk monitoring and early warning system for government debt that features dual indicators,namely the debt-to-GDP ratio and the debt-service ratio,implementing standardized debt restructuring,and building a dynamic equilibrium mechanism for the long-term management of government debt scale.It also recommends accelerating the new round of fiscal and tax system reforms,establishing a hierarchical fiscal management system that integrates taxes,fees,debt,and rents,reconfiguring the rights,responsibilities,and interests between central and local governments in debt management,resolving the risks inherent in the government debt structure,and ultimately serving the high-quality development of the national economy and society.
  • “Crowding-in”or“Crowding-out”: The Impact of Intergovernmental Transfers on Budget Stabilization Fund
    GUAN Zhen, LIANG Fengbo
    2026, 0(9): 63-77.
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    How intergovernmental transfers affect local governments' precautionary fiscal reserves is a crucial issue for fiscal system improvement and local fiscal stability.Using the budget stabilization fund(BSF)—a countercyclical fiscal tool—as the research subject,this paper examines the actual impact of transfers on local fiscal reserves.Theoretically,transfers may exert both“crowding-in”and“crowding-out”effects on BSF deposits,leaving the net effect an empirical question.Based on China's provincial panel data from 2008 to 2021,we find that,from a comparative perspective,transfers have a significantly positive effect on BSF deposits,a result that remains robust across multiple tests.Mechanism analyses show that transfers work through two channels:easing fiscal pressure(fiscal compensation effect)and amplifying the perception of revenue uncertainty(precautionary saving motive).Further analysis reveals that this positive impact is mainly driven by general-purpose transfers and weakens with higher levels of regional economic development and local government competition.This study extends the literature on the institutional effects of transfers and the operation mechanism of BSFs,providing empirical evidence for optimizing the transfer structure,strengthening local fiscal risk resilience,and improving the modern budget management system.
  • The Employment Growth Effects of Vertical Reform in Judicial Administration:Evidence from the Establishment of Circuit Courts
    DU Ying, QI Baolei, CAO Zhaoying, DING Yige
    2026, 0(9): 78-95.
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    Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges from 2010 to 2021,this study empirically investigates how the establishment of circuit courts—a key institutional arrangement advancing the vertical reform of the judicial administration—affects firm-level employment.The results demonstrate that this reform significantly boosts firms' employment growth. Mechanism tests reveal that the establishment of circuit courts improves firms' business expectations and enhances their access to financing,thereby strengthening firms' willingness to hire while alleviating financial constraints on labor recruitment.Heterogeneity tests show that the positive employment effect is more prominent in labor-intensive firms,non-state-owned firms,and firms facing tighter internal liquidity constraints and stronger external financing needs.By disentangling the effects on hiring willingness and hiring capacity,this study clarifies how circuit courts boost firms' labor recruitment.The findings offer judicial insights for refining the policy toolkit for achieving fuller employment,and provide theoretical and empirical support for further deepening vertical management reform in the judicial sector.
  • The Predictive Effect of Buzzwords in Annual Reports: Empirical Evidence from Corporate Innovation Performance
    TANG Zhen, JIANG Lixian, XIN Fu
    2026, 0(9): 96-112.
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    In a highly competitive business environment,corporate information disclosure plays a crucial role in shaping investors' and the public's perceptions of firms' innovation capabilities.However,the frequent occurrence of firms' newsjacking behavior introduces uncertainty about the alignment between disclosed information and actual innovation performance.To explore this issue,this study employs a text analysis approach to examine the buzzwords contained in the annual reports of Chinese listed companies and their relationship with corporate innovation performance.The results show that buzzword disclosure has significant predictive effects on firms' innovation activities,indicating that a higher frequency of buzzword usage in firms' annual reports is associated with better innovation performance in the following year. Consistent with the incremental information hypothesis,buzzword disclosure affects firms' innovation performance mainly by enhancing information transparency,increasing investors' optimism,and alleviating financing constraints.In addition,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive relationship between buzzword disclosure and corporate innovation is more significant in firms operating in highly competitive markets,high-tech industries,and non-state-owned enterprises.This study confirms that buzzwords can serve as a textual feature indicator for predicting corporate innovation performance and enriches the research in the fields of information disclosure and corporate innovation.
  • Will Loss Aversion Stimulate Residents' Demand for Commercial Insurance？Theoretical and Empirical Analysis Based on Micro-behavior
    CHEN Xuejiao, CHEN Rui, ZHANG Hongbo, LYU Liu
    2026, 0(9): 113-128.
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    This paper examines how loss aversion shapes household demand for commercial insurance in China,where behavioral approaches to insurance participation remain underdeveloped.Grounded in prospect theory,we develop an analytical framework incorporating three prevalent contractual arrangements:full coverage,deductibles,and coverage limits,to derive theoretical predictions regarding the positive effect of loss aversion on insurance demand.Using data from the 2017 China Household Finance Survey(CHFS),we estimate Probit and Tobit models and find that greater loss aversion significantly raises both the probability of insurance enrollment and premium expenditures.These results withstand endogeneity corrections and extensive robustness checks.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the effect is more pronounced among households with less-educated heads,better economic conditions,or female heads. Mechanism tests indicate that loss aversion operates primarily through intensifying risk aversion motives and weakening reliance on informal social networks.Our findings offer new theoretical and empirical insights into the behavioral mechanisms that translate insurance awareness into actual purchasing decisions,with implications for product design and market segmentation strategies.
  • Can the Downward Expansion of Capital Market Services Stimulate Agricultural Entrepreneurship in Counties?Empirical Evidence from the“Capital Market County Initiative”
    HUANG Huichun, CHEN Hong
    2026, 0(9): 129-146.
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    Stimulating the vitality of agricultural entrepreneurship at the county level is essential for enhancing agricultural prosperity and advancing comprehensive rural revitalization.This paper exploits the implementation of the“Capital Market County Initiative”as a quasi-natural experiment.Using panel data for 494 counties in six provincial-level regions from 2011 to 2023,it applies a multi-period DID model to estimate the effect of the downward expansion of capital market services on county agricultural entrepreneurship vitality.The results show that the downward expansion of capital market services significantly enhances county agricultural entrepreneurship vitality.Mechanism analysis further indicates that this effect operates mainly through revitalizing county capital markets,improving local financing conditions,and strengthening the driving role of leading county enterprises,thereby reshaping the county entrepreneurship ecosystem. Heterogeneity analysis shows that individual agricultural operators and agricultural service entrepreneurship exhibit stronger responses to the policy.The policy effect is more pronounced in regions with stronger resource endowments,greater agricultural market potential,and weaker financial development.Further analysis finds that the downward expansion of capital market services also significantly improves agricultural entrepreneurship performance.Overall,from the perspective of county agricultural entrepreneurship,this paper confirms the inclusive effects of the downward expansion of capital market services and provides useful policy implications for enhancing the inclusiveness of the“Capital Market County Initiative,”stimulating agricultural entrepreneurship,and strengthening county-level economic development.
  • Electric Power Infrastructure and Firm Exports:Evidence from a Quasi-natural Experiment of Ultra-High Voltage Transmission Projects
    CHEN Xiu, YANG Wu, LIU Yalin
    2026, 0(9): 147-160.
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    Against the backdrop of a complex global trade environment and profound shifts in the energy landscape,new power infrastructure may shape firm competitiveness by optimizing energy allocation and enhancing supply efficiency.We estimate the causal impact of Ultra-High Voltage(UHV)transmission on firm exports as a quasi-natural experiment.Utilizing the staggered DID,DDD and PSM methods,and firm-level data from the National Tax Survey,we identify a robust 4.9% increase in export volume for firms in connected cities.This export effect is driven by economies of scale and productivity gains. Heterogeneity analyses show that the effects are most pronounced for firms that are energy-intensive,bigger in scale,capital-intensive,and less financially constrained.The export-facilitating role is closely related to the power supply quality of the terminal grid in receiving cities.The impact of UHV is significantly larger in regions with higher-quality local distribution networks.This paper provides novel micro-level evidence on the positive spillovers of infrastructure investments on firms' global market performance,yielding important policy implications for infrastructure planning and the cultivation of firms' international competitiveness.