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  • The Economic Effects and Governance of Cross-border Data Flows
    WANG Liyong, CHANG Qing, ZHANG Longtian, HUANG Jinglei
    2026, 0(7): 5-19.
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    The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China explicitly emphasizes the promotion of efficient,convenient,and secure cross-border data flows. Accordingly,cross-border data flows have emerged as a core issue concerning high-level opening-up and high-quality economic development.However,due to the dual characteristics of data—non-rivalry and privacy—cross-border data flows are inherently more complex than traditional factor mobility,and the existing literature remains at an early stage.Against this backdrop,this paper systematically reviews the research progress on the economic effects and governance of cross-border data flows in both domestic and international literature,focusing on three main dimensions.First,it examines the fundamental connotations and measurement approaches of cross-border data flows,including the evolution of the concept and the applicability of commonly used proxy indicators.Second,it analyzes the economic effects of cross-border data flows,covering five aspects:firm-level operational effects,trade effects,innovation and growth effects,constraint effects,and risk effects.Third,it investigates the governance of cross-border data flows,including a comparative analysis of domestic regulations and international agreements,as well as the theoretical logic of digital sovereignty as the foundation of governance rights.Building on this review,the paper further identifies the limitations of the existing literature,with the aim of providing directions for future research and offering academic support for China's active participation in global data governance,as well as for promoting the efficient and secure cross-border flow of data as a production factor.
  • Research on Central Bank Budget Management from the Perspective of Fiscal Governance Modernization
    FAN Liming, LYU Kaidi
    2026, 0(7): 20-32.
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    Under the ongoing advancement of fiscal governance modernization, comprehensively incorporating all revenues derived from state power and sovereign credit into a standardized and transparent budget management framework has become a key task in building a modern fiscal system.As an important public institution responsible for monetary policy and financial stability, the central bank conducts financial activities characterized by public, policy-oriented, and institutional attributes.Among these activities, central bank profits, as a special type of public revenue derived from monetary sovereignty, constitute the core component of central bank budget management.Based on the theoretical framework of fiscal governance modernization, this paper takes central bank profit allocation as the analytical entry point to systematically examine the special attributes and institutional logic of central bank budget management.It further interprets central bank profits as a form of“sovereign credit rent”and analyzes the principles of publicity, rule of law, and sustainability underlying their allocation.On this basis, the paper investigates the practical challenges faced by China's central bank budget management system in terms of budget transparency, responsibility boundaries, risk-buffer mechanisms, and institutional standardization. It also compares the institutional arrangements of major economies, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, and the Eurozone, and explores possible optimization paths for China's central bank budget management system.The study argues that advancing the modernization of central bank budget management must serve the broader objective of fiscal governance modernization by establishing a modern budget management system characterized by clear responsibilities, standardized operation, controllable risks, and public transparency, thereby better supporting the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity.
  • Aging,Delayed Retirement and the Balance of Basic Old-age Insurance Funds for Urban Enterprise Employees
    ZHANG Yongkai, WANG Mingxuan
    2026, 0(7): 33-47.
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    As the degree of population aging in our country continues to deepen,the balance of social security contributions and expenditures is facing increasingly severe challenges.Based on the gradual retirement extension policy to be implemented in 2025,this paper constructs an actuarial model to simulate and predict the changes in the revenue,expenditure,surplus and fiscal burden of the basic old-age insurance for urban enterprise employees from 2026 to 2050,and analyzes the dynamic impact and regulatory effect of this policy on the balance of the basic old-age insurance for urban enterprise employees. The results show that the gradual retirement extension has a positive impact on the fund balance and the changes in the growth rate of revenue and expenditure,and presents a phased evolution pattern.The study further finds that the core value of this policy lies in enhancing the resilience of the income end.During the forecast period,the average annual growth rate of the income of the basic old-age insurance for urban enterprise employees increases by approximately 0.56%,the average annual growth rate of expenditure increases by approximately 0.16%,and the net improvement effect is approximately 0.4%.Even with the implementation of the gradual retirement extension policy,the basic old-age insurance fund for urban enterprise employees is expected to first experience a deficit in 2029,and the gap size will gradually expand.At the same time,the increase in the proportion of flexible employment will exacerbate the imbalance in the revenue and expenditure of old-age insurance,weakening the policy's effect of reducing the deficit.In brief,relying solely on the gradual retirement extension is difficult to fundamentally alleviate the structural pressure of the old-age insurance system.In the future,it is still necessary to promote complementary reforms to ensure the stable operation of the old-age insurance system.
  • Investor Information Processing Patterns and Stock Idiosyncratic Risk: Evidences from Stock Community Posts Based on FinBERT Text Classification
    YIN Haiyuan, XU Mengyang
    2026, 0(7): 48-64.
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    Taking the constituent stocks of the CSI 300 Index from 2020 to 2024 as the research sample,this paper collects user posts and comment data from Eastmoney Guba via web crawler technology,and constructs a micro-level database containing more than 175 million records.Based on the Heuristic-Systematic Model(HSM),we accurately classify posts into fundamental analysis driven by systematic processing and technical analysis driven by heuristic processing,using a targeted fine-tuned FinBERT model adapted to the financial domain.On this basis,we construct metrics for measuring investors' information processing modes from the dual post-level and user-level dimensions,and empirically analyze their impact on stock idiosyncratic risk.The empirical results show that the proportion of the systematic processing mode is significantly and negatively correlated with stock idiosyncratic risk.This inhibitory effect is more pronounced at the user level,and exhibits a stronger magnitude in the high idiosyncratic risk interval.Mechanism tests reveal that systematic processing inhibits idiosyncratic risk through the dual channels of the information learning effect and the information transmission effect.Specifically,the former reduces disagreement among investors,while the latter shortens the average propagation path of information in the network.Together,the two effects mitigate disorderly market fluctuations triggered by irrational information processing and noise trading.The research findings enrich the behavioral finance explanations for the formation of idiosyncratic risk from the perspective of investors' information processing modes,and provide empirical evidence for improving market information efficiency and preventing stock market risks.
  • Household Registration Transition and Financial Behavior: A Study on the Impact of Rural-to-urban Experience on Commercial Insurance Purchase
    JI Linxue, WANG Huiling, LIU Xiaoyun
    2026, 0(7): 65-79.
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    The development of commercial insurance is of great significance for constructing a multi-tiered social security system and optimizing the governance structure of social risks.Based on data from 2023 China General Social Survey,this paper empirically investigates the impact of the“agricultural-to-non-agricultural”experience on residents' commercial insurance purchase behavior.The study finds that the probability of purchasing commercial insurance among the hukou conversion group is higher than that of rural residents but lower than that of urban natives.Mechanism analysis reveals that the hukou conversion experience shapes an intermediate state in both income gradient and social class gradient,leading to a higher purchase probability than rural residents and a lower probability than urban natives.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the selective conversion path widens the gap in commercial insurance purchase behavior between the conversion group and rural residents,while narrowing the gap between the conversion group and urban natives.Conversely,the policy-driven conversion path and reforms of the hukou system produce opposite effects.This paper provides policy references for promoting the sound development of commercial insurance and enhancing household financial resilience.
  • Pay Gap in Core Technical Team and IPO Performance: Evidence from the STAR Market
    LING Zixi, SUN Jian, LI Zhe, ZHU Liyi
    2026, 0(7): 80-95.
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    This paper studies the impact of the pay gap between core technical staff on firms IPO performance,finding that the pay gap is negatively correlated with the first-day return of the IPO,and this negative relationship is not caused by corporate performance or governance level.Further research shows that the pay gap has a more significant negative impact on IPO return when the company is more concerned with relationships,less competitive in the industry,and far away from the intellectual property court,and the mechanism by which the pay gap affects the IPO performance is that it has a negative impact on innovation output of the team.On the 45th day after listing,the stock market still shows a negative reaction to the pay gap.After a series of robustness tests,the main conclusions of this paper are still robust.The findings in this paper suggest that firms should carefully weigh the incentive effect of pay gap of the scientific research team and the negative impact on the stability of the team.In addition,regulators should pay attention to the salary structure of scientific researchers in listed companies.
  • Employee Relation and Corporate Default Risk
    XU Hongmei, NI Xiaoran, LIU Yanan, XU Ning
    2026, 0(7): 96-111.
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    Ensuring employees' legitimate rights and fostering harmonious employment relationships are central to a firm's stakeholder orientation and represent key practices in the social dimension of ESG. Using the employee social responsibility database of A-share listed companies from the CNRDS database,this paper constructs an employee relations index and investigates how employee relations affect corporate default risk.The findings reveal that firms with higher-quality employee relations exhibit significantly lower default risk than their counterparts.This effect is more pronounced among private enterprises and labor-intensive firms.Further analyses indicate that,those with stronger employee relations show higher productivity and fixed asset depreciation rates,while maintaining lower financial leverage.Overall,improved employee relations reduce corporate default risk,thereby enabling risk sharing among stakeholders and contributing to sustainable development.
  • The Optimal Choice of Digital Payment Instruments Under Differences in Transaction Mode Efficiency: From the Perspective of Contract Screening and Privacy Trade-off
    BAO Liyue, LIU Weiqi
    2026, 0(7): 112-127.
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    Against the digital economy backdrop,the trade-off between privacy protection and credit efficiency in digital payment tools is a core issue in fintech.This paper constructs a simplified lending model including P-money(traditional bank payment),C-money(central bank digital currency),and O-money(open banking payment),using signal precision to characterize lenders'(Homo sapiens)information acquisition ability.By endogenizing users' absconding probability within the legal environment coefficient,it analyzes payment data flows' impact on credit market equilibrium,user transactions, and social welfare, with theoretical robustness verified via grid-based numerical simulations.We find that P-money provides lenders with perfect information but leads to inefficient low-frequency user transactions due to inadequate privacy protection.C-money promotes high-frequency transactions through full anonymity,achieving optimal social welfare under robust legal frameworks but causing inefficiency and potential credit contraction in weak legal environments.O-money balances privacy and credit accessibility via user data control,nearly eliminating loan rejection zones.Numerical simulations indicate that the legal environment and low-frequency transaction efficiency are key to equilibrium shifts,with C-money's advantages limited to specific intervals.This paper offers theoretical and empirical support for payment tool selection,CBDC parameter design,and open banking regulation.
  • Does Peer Imitation in ESG Disclosure Curb or Exacerbate Greenwashing? Evidences from Evolutionary Game Theory and Panel Regression Analysis
    FANG Shu, HE Zhichan, FENG Bao
    2026, 0(7): 128-144.
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    Against the backdrop of China's Dual-carbon strategic goals,ESG disclosure has become an important benchmark for corporate behavior and market valuation.Yet whether it necessarily leads to substantive green improvement remains unclear.Using data on Chinese A-share listed firms from 2011 to 2022,this study combines evolutionary game analysis with panel fixed-effects models to examine the impact of peer effects in ESG disclosure on corporate greenwashing.We find there is a significant effect of peer imitation in ESG disclosure on corporate greenwashing,with stronger peer imitation associated with a higher degree of greenwashing.Mechanism analyses reveal that investor attention and environmental governance costs are key transmission channels.Heterogeneity analysis further suggests that this effect is more pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises,firms facing stronger market competition,and firms located in regions with weaker legal institutions.this study elucidates the relationship between ESG disclosure peer effects and corporate greenwashing,providing empirical evidence and policy implications for improving ESG disclosure regimes,designing differentiated regulatory frameworks,and mitigating systemic greenwashing risks.
  • Breaking Innovation Barriers:Computing Infrastructure Drives Firms' Key Core Technologies Breakthroughs
    WANG Kefan, WANG Wei, LIU Deyu
    2026, 0(7): 145-160.
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    Promoting firms' key core technologies breakthroughs is essential for achieving high-level sci-tech self-reliance and self-improvement,and strengthening the security and competitiveness of industrial chains.As a critical component of the digital economy,computing infrastructure provides fundamental support for complex R&D activities and technological breakthroughs.Using data from Chinese A-share listed firms over the period 2007-2023,this study systematically examines the impact of computing infrastructure on firms' key core technologies breakthroughs and explores the underlying mechanisms.The results show that computing infrastructure significantly promotes firms' key core technologies breakthroughs,primarily through enhancing internal capabilities and strengthening external innovation embedding. Heterogeneity analysis further indicates that the promoting effect is more pronounced among firms located in regions with mature venture capital environments,non-chain-leading firms,firms with higher agile responsiveness,and firms in eastern China.In addition,the combination of computing infrastructure with policies facilitating data factor circulation and innovation ecosystem optimization generates significant synergistic effects on firms' key core technologies breakthroughs.Moreover,computing infrastructure strengthens the positive impact of key core technologies breakthroughs on firms' financial performance.This study provides micro-level empirical evidence on how new digital infrastructure drives key core technologies breakthroughs and offers policy implications for optimizing computing resource allocation and improving the coordination of innovation policies.