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  • Reform of the Whole Process of Performance Management Based on the Model of Real-time Budgeting
    MA Caichen, BAI Bo
    2025, 0(7): 5-18.
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    In order to explore the impact of budget process and environment on budget decision-making, the model of “real-time” budgeting deconstructs the budget process into five decision clusters, namely, revenue cluster, process cluster, expenditure cluster, balance cluster and implementation cluster. The resource competitiveness, environmental openness and process semi-independence characteristics reflected in the model are applicable to budget management at all levels of government.Practice shows that the model of “real-time” budgeting puts forward higher requirements for traditional budget performance management, which is specifically manifested in the need to build a more objective ex ante performance evaluation framework, a dynamic real-time performance monitoring system and a more effective evaluation result application mechanism.Facing the requirements of the times for improving budget system, it is necessary to plan from the core functions of each decision cluster, from the medium-term perspective of performance goals and indicators setting, the ex ante performance evaluation framework based on the logic model, the dynamic monitoring mechanism based on key performance indicators, and the application of performance evaluation results from the perspective of inter-period, so as to realize closed loop of the whole process budget performance management.
  • The Countercyclical Role of State-owned Enterprise Investment: Perspectives on Stabilizing Finance and Growth
    LAI Huating, LIU Ding
    2025, 0(7): 19-38.
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    Stabilizing both economic growth and financial stability is crucial for addressing the challenges facing China's economy.This paper develops a dynamic macro model that distinguishes between state-owned and private enterprises and incorporates financial frictions.Empirical evidence shows that provinces with a higher share of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) experience more stable GDP and financial growth, especially during downturns.Model simulations reveal that economic shocks tighten commercial banks' leverage constraints, increase financial frictions, and suppress investment and output. However, countercyclical investment by SOEs mitigates output declines and enhances financial stability by easing banks' constraints and expanding credit supply, which also crowds in private investment.These stabilizing effects are stronger with higher state capital shares and greater production efficiency. Furthermore, SOEs' investment is more effective than government consumption in maintaining economic stability.
  • Participation of State-owned Capital and Dividend Smoothing of Private Enterprises:Empirical Evidence from Mixed Ownership Structure
    QIAN Aimin, LI Jingyan, ZHANG Chenyu
    2025, 0(7): 39-56.
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    Based on a sample of A-share listed private enterprises in China from 2008 to 2021, this paper empirically studies the impact of the participation of state-owned capital on the dividend smoothing of private enterprises.The results indicate that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the proportion of state-owned capital and dividend smoothing of private enterprises.When the proportion of state-owned capital is less than the threshold, it enhances the dividend smoothing of private enterprises; when the proportion exceeds the threshold, further improving state-owned capital will damage the dividend smoothing of private enterprises.Further analysis shows that a better investor protection level, a higher uncertainty level of the external environment, and a higher level of separation of cash flow right and control right of the actual controller weakens the inverted U-shaped relationship.Path analysis shows that state-owned capital influences the dividend smoothing of private enterprises via external supervision and internal investment efficiency.In addition, this paper finds that compared with strategic state-owned capital, the influence of non-strategic state-owned capital is more pronounced.This paper enriches the understanding of dividend smoothing of listed enterprises in China and provides empirical evidences for private enterprises to effectively leverage the advantages of state-owned capital.
  • The VAT Horizontal Distribution System and Local Government Debt: Theoretical Mechanism, Empirical Evidences and Policy Implications
    LIU Chaoyang, LIU Tiantong, ZHANG Lu
    2025, 0(7): 57-79.
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    Based on the original principle and the input tax credit system, the horizontal distribution system of value-added tax between regions has shaped the incentives of local governments to“emphasize production and light consumption”, led to the tax competition of“attracting investment”and“building nests to lure phoenixes”of local governments, resulted in the excessive expansion of local government debt and intensified the financial imbalance between regions, which is not conducive to alleviating China's current major contradictions and building a new development pattern.Based on the panel data of 192 prefecture-level cities in China from 2016 to 2021, this paper uses the spatial Durbin model to empirically test how the original principle of VAT and the input tax credit system distort local government behavior, thereby leading to the expansion of local government debt.The results show that the distortion of government behavior caused by the original principle of VAT forms a chain reaction through inter-regional fiscal competition and economic interaction, and pushes up the overall government debt rate.Every 1% increase in tax transfer degree caused by the original principle of VAT, the overall regional debt rate will increase by 1.9%.The original principle of VAT will increase the risk of local debt, expand the gap of local fiscal revenue and expenditure and cause the bias of local fiscal expenditure.The reform of the destination principle can alleviate the distortion caused by the original principle and block the competitive expansion mechanism of local debt.This paper suggests gradually advancing VAT reforms based on the destination principle to promote balanced regional development and disrupt the competitive expansion mechanism of local government debt.
  • Accelerating GAS Model for Time-varying Leverage Effect and It's Empirical Study
    YANG Liangliang, SHEN Genxiang
    2025, 0(7): 80-94.
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    The leverage effect that describes the asymmetric reaction of volatility to risk asset return shocks is one of three main features in financial data.This paper handles with time-varying leverage effect parameter in the frame of EGARCH model to seize the time-varying characteristic of leverage effect while most literatures regarded leverage effect as the constant.In order to overcome the defect of the slow response of the score-driven model to shock, this paper adopts the accelerating GAS model to set the time-varying dynamic model of leverage effect.The Monte Carlo simulation results show that the EGARCH model with time-varying leverage effect has better in-sample fitting power and stronger out-of-sample prediction capabilities.The results of the Model Confidence Set test with Qlike loss function for selecting the three EGARCH models demonstrate the volatility prediction ability of the EGARCH model with accelerating GAS is always within the best model set.Empirical analysis on the SSE Composite Index and CSI 300 index shows that the aGAS-based time-varying EGARCH model exhibits superior flexibility in capturing market dynamics and enhanced performance in volatility fitting and forecasting compared to the GAS-based one.To further validate the value of time-varying leverage effect, this paper uses the filtered time-varying leverage effect to improve the technical trading rules.The results reveal that the improved technical trading rules perform better in terms of annualized return, annualized volatility, maximum drawdown and Sharpe ratio than original counterpart, displaying the time-varying leverage effect has marginal information increment.
  • The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on Cross-border Equity Capital Flows
    GOU Qin, XU Haochen, SHI Jianping
    2025, 0(7): 95-110.
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    Promoting high-level financial openness constitutes a critical strategic task in constructing a new development pattern.As China's financial market integration with global markets intensifies, the transmission channels for external risk shocks have become increasingly diverse.Based on micro-level cross-country panel data from 6 168 global equity funds across 26 countries from 2004 to 2020, this paper develops an international asset pricing model incorporating dual transmission mechanisms of geopolitical risk to examine the impact of country-specific geopolitical risk on cross-border equity capital flows.Empirical results demonstrate that country-specific geopolitical risk generates an inverted U-shaped nonlinear effect on cross-border equity capital flows by influencing global equity funds' risk premium pursuit and risk-averse behaviors.When risk remains below a critical threshold, it promotes capital inflows and triggers capital outflows once exceeding this threshold.This effect is more pronounced among passive funds, emerging markets, and countries with low capital account openness.By constructing a fund network spillover index, this study further identifies significant positive spillover effects whereby geopolitical risk in one country affects cross-border equity capital flows in other countries through global equity fund networks.This research enriches cross-border capital flow theory and provides theoretical foundations and policy implications for mitigating cross-border capital flow disruptions precipitated by geopolitical risks, with significant implications for national financial security.
  • Absence of Controlling Shareholders and Management Pay Gap: Tournament or Managerial Power?
    ZHANG Linyi, WU Qinlin, ZHANG Honghui
    2025, 0(7): 111-125.
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    In recent years, companies disclose the absence of controlling shareholders.When there is no controlling shareholders, it is worthy of studying what would happen for the managerial compensation contract and the pay gap between managers.Using data of the absence of controlling shareholders', this paper study the relationship between absence of controlling shareholders and managerial pay gap.The results show that there is positive relationship between absence of controlling shareholders and pay gap. And this positive relationship can be attributed to managerial power.In the further analysis, this paper also finds that the current two major shareholders' equity is close, the senior management with high reputation and the board of directors is large, the use of power to pursue private interests is more serious.In the analysis of governance mechanism, this paper finds that the ownership incentive can play a governance role, and significantly inhibit the positive effect of non-controlling shareholders on the executive compensation gap; legal protection can play a governance role too.The results of this study, offer empirical evidence on the management compensation contract designing, widen the research on pay gap and give us new insight of corporate governance in the background of absence of controlling shareholders.
  • The Age Effect of Redistribution in an Aging Society
    HOU Huili, WANG Xiaoyu
    2025, 0(7): 126-143.
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    This paper incorporates the age dimension into redistribution research, offering new perspectives for achieving high-quality population development and common prosperity in an aging society.Based on general equilibrium theory and welfare economics, it argues that the classical utilitarian welfare function better suits China's current needs.A sequential game model is built, showing that allocating more production enhancing welfare measures to young families can maximize social welfare. Empirical analyses also reveal age effects in welfare redistribution.The government's redistribution model allocates production enhancing welfare measures to young families with more advantageous factor endowments than elderly families.Even in low endowment families, production enhancing welfare measures are allocated to young families, and protective welfare measures are allocated to elderly families.This redistribution model that reflects the age effect not only avoids reverse distribution, but also eliminates the welfare dependence of young people, reflecting the precise investment in redistribution and the efficiency of public resource allocation.Facing China's rapidly aging population, to improve fertility support, to investe more in education, and to provide sufficient social investment to the youth to boost human capital and capacity are key to economic growth and maximizing social welfare, thus enabling high-quality common prosperity.
  • Exploring the Mechanisms Underlying the Influence of Chatbot Emotional-functional Characteristics on Employee Acceptance Intention:An Empirical Investigation Utilizing Structural Equation Modeling and Artificial Neural Network
    LIU Shengmin, MEI Yu
    2025, 0(7): 144-160.
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    Employees' adoption intentions toward chatbots are influenced by the emotional-functional characteristics of chatbots and their resultant psychological responses.Grounded in the Stimulus-organism-Response (SOR) framework, this study establishes a research model examining the mechanisms through which chatbots' emotional characteristic and functional characteristic influence employee acceptance intention, utilizing a sample of 305 employees from 5 internet companies.By employing partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) and artificial neural network (ANN) methodologies, the results demonstrate that: (1) employees perceived emotional value mediates the relationship between chatbots' emotional expression and acceptance intention; (2) the mediating effect of perceived functional value between chatbots' customized response and acceptance intention is not statistically significant.Moderation analyses reveal: (1) the mediating effect of perceived emotional value is more significant among employees with high need for human interaction; (2) employees exhibiting high need for uniqueness derive greater perceived functional value from chatbots' customized response characteristic.This research elucidates the mechanisms underlying chatbots' emotional-functional characteristics' impact on adoption intention, extending the application scope of the SOR framework and perceived value theory.The findings provide practical insights for organizational managers to optimize human-AI collaborative environments, enhance employee productivity in machine-augmented workplaces, while offering strategic pathways for building human-AI co-creative ecosystems.