理解延迟退休和养老保险制度改革如何影响经济增长,对于制定老龄化政策和实现经济高质量发展至关重要。本文构建基于研发(R&D)创新增长的跨期迭代模型(OLG),将代际人力资本作为内生传导机制,引入混合养老保险体系刻画延迟退休和养老保险制度改革对经济增长的影响。理论研究表明,延迟退休和养老保险制度改革通过总量人力资本增长效应、创新增长效应和中间产品增长效应三条机制影响经济增长。数值模拟结果显示,两种制度产生的总量人力资本效应占据主导地位,延迟退休使得经济增长率下降,养老保险制度改革使得经济增长率上升。鉴于此,本文还考察了两种制度同时实施的经济增长效应,发现老龄化社会要实现创新驱动经济发展,应关注延迟退休和养老保险制度改革之间的联动关系,两种政策配合使用以实现更好的经济增长效应。
Abstract
To understand the impact of delayed retirement and pension insurance system reform on economic growth is crucial to formulating policies on aging and achieving high-quality economic development. This article constructs overlapping generation model (OLG) based on R&D innovation-driven growth model, takes intergenerational human capital as an endogenous transmission mechanism, and introduces a mixed pension insurance system to describe the impact of delayed retirement and pension insurance system reform on economic growth.Theoretical research shows that the delayed retirement and pension insurance system reform affect the economic growth through three mechanisms: the total human capital growth effect, the innovation growth effect and the intermediate product growth effect.The numerical simulation results show that the total human capital effect of the two systems is dominant, delayed retirement reduces the economic growth rate, and pension insurance system reform increases the economic growth rate.In view of this, this article also examines the economic growth effects of the two systems implemented simultaneously, and finds that in order to realize innovation-driven economic development in the aging society, we should pay attention to the linkage relationship between delayed retirement and pension insurance system reform, and the two policies should be used together to achieve better economic growth effects.
关键词
延迟退休 /
养老保险制度改革 /
人力资本投资 /
R&D创新增长
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Key words
Delayed retirement /
Pension insurance system reform /
Human capital investment /
R&D innovation-driven growth
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脚注
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基金
国家社会科学基金项目“经济增长理论研究”(项目编号:22VRC176)。
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