2008年金融危机后货币政策有效性下降是各国宏观经济调控中的典型特征,而如何恢复货币政策的强力功效成为政策制定者核心关切。破解该难题的前提在于剖析货币政策有效性下降的原因。基于此,以我国为研究对象,在构建符合我国货币政策实际操作的理论模型基础上,通过改进时变VAR/SVAR模型的识别技术,对我国货币政策有效性变化进行系统性解析。研究发现:第一,货币政策本身冲击的降低是我国货币政策有效性下降的重要原因,这表明我国政府通过意外政策刺激经济的倾向降低;第二,影子银行、财政政策、利率市场化、国外货币政策等货币政策实施的外部环境因素也影响了我国货币政策有效性,其中影子银行、利率市场化和国外货币政策负向影响了数量型货币政策有效性,而财政政策正向影响了数量型货币政策有效性;第三,货币政策传导机制的转变并不是我国货币政策有效性变化的原因。籍此,本文为如何提升我国货币政策有效性提出了富有建设性的政策建议。
Abstract
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the decline in the effectiveness of monetary policy has been a typical feature of macroeconomic control in various countries.How to restore the strong effectiveness of monetary policy has become the core concern of policymakers.The premise of solving this puzzle is to analyze the reasons for the decline in the effectiveness of monetary policy.On the basis of improving the identification technology of the time-varying VAR/SVAR model and constructing a theoretical model that conforms to the actual operation of China's monetary policy, this paper systematically analyzes the changes in the effectiveness of China's monetary policy.We find the reduction of the impact of monetary policy itself is an important reason for the decline in the effectiveness of China's monetary policy, which indicates that the Chinese government has a reduced tendency to stimulate the economy through unexpected policies.We also find external environmental factors such as shadow banking, interest rate marketization and foreign monetary policy negatively affect the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policy, while fiscal policy positively affects the effectiveness of quantitative monetary policy.It is worth noting that the change in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy is not the reason for the change in the effectiveness of China's monetary policy.Therefore, this paper puts forward constructive policy suggestions on how to improve the effectiveness of China's monetary policy.
关键词
货币政策 /
宏观经济 /
时变SVAR模型
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Key words
Monetary policy /
Macroeconomics /
Time-varying SVAR model
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中图分类号：
F224.0F820.2F822.2
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脚注
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基金
国家社会科学基金项目“利率并轨背景下货币政策传导机制与央行政策取向研究”(项目编号:20BJL017)。
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