党的二十大指出,“着力推动高质量发展”,“促进高质量充分就业”,高质量发展和就业是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的重要组成部分。本文构建了一个多部门的代际交替动态一般均衡模型,分析人工智能对高质量发展和就业的影响。数值模拟发现,人工智能通过替代效应和创造效应非对称改变资本和劳动在不同部门要素边际产出,诱导要素跨部门流动促进产业转型升级。同时,人工智能将替代低技能劳动力,增加对高技能劳动力的需求,从而优化劳动力市场结构。同一行业之间,人工智能通过替代效应和创造效应促进智能企业转型升级。不同行业中,人工智能通过价格效应、岗位更迭效应和溢出效应促进关联企业转型升级。进一步研究发现,人工智能替代效应以激烈的方式从外部促进企业转型升级,而创造效应以温和的方式从内部促进企业实现转型升级。
Abstract
The 20th National Congress of the Party has emphasized the need to“vigorously promote high-quality development”and“facilitate high-quality and full employment”.High-quality development and employment constitute integral components of building a comprehensive socialist modernization in China. This paper constructs a multi-sector intergenerational dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the impact of artificial intelligence on high-quality development and employment.Numerical simulations reveal that artificial intelligence induces asymmetric changes in capital and labor marginal output across different sectors through substitution and creation effects.These effects encourage factor reallocation across sectors, promoting industrial transformation and upgrading.Simultaneously, artificial intelligence tends to replace low-skilled labor while increasing the demand for high-skilled labor, optimizing the labor market structure.Within the same industry, artificial intelligence fosters transformation and upgrading of intelligent enterprises through substitution and creation effects.Across different industries, artificial intelligence facilitates transformation and upgrading of affiliated enterprises through price effects, job turnover effects, and spillover effects.Further investigation indicates that the substitution effects of artificial intelligence vigorously drive enterprise transformation and upgrading from external forces, while the creation effects gently facilitate internal transformation and upgrading within enterprises.
关键词
人工智能 /
高质量发展 /
产业转型升级
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Key words
Artificial intelligence /
High quality development /
Industrial transformation and upgrading
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中图分类号：
F015F24
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脚注
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基金
国家社科基金一般项目“新一代人工智能对劳动收入差距的影响与政策研究”(项目编号:23BJY134)。
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