在文前相关文章中,笔者着重分析了诱发日本泡沫经济的制度根源。然而,从国际金融协调视角来看,日美货币关系才是主导日本金融政策的幕后推手。二战后,美国依靠其“华尔街循环”,依托对日贸易将美元供给融入日本货币发行体系之中,取得了通过影响日元供给量左右日本经济的金融主动权。当美元贬值、日元升值引发日本国内货币供给收缩时,缺少货币供给缓冲机制的日本只能启动积极财政政策弥补缺口,然而大量资金却被引入房地产和股市,引发资产泡沫,最终日本陷入通货紧缩漩涡,落下严重依赖国债维持经济增长的后遗症。对比来看,美国再次依托对中贸易将美元内生于人民币供给体系,取得了通过外汇占款影响中国经济走势的金融强权,中国处于金融守势。此时,未雨绸缪中美货币之变,构筑中美金融关系“新常态”,避免日本教训,意义重大。中国应确立“抽身美元世界,立身人民币世界”的国际金融协调战略;积极稳妥地推进“熊猫债”市场建设,构建人民币经济圈;切断积极财政政策与资产泡沫间的传导机制,避免金融体系出现系统性风险触发泡沫经济。

In the last article,the author emphatically analyzes the root cause of Japan's bubble economy.From the perspective of international financial coordination,however,the Japan-American monetary relations is the dominant on Japan's financial policy.After the second world war,the United States put dollars into Japan's currency system by its “Wall Street circuit”,in order to influence the supply of the Japanese yen.When the money supply reduced by the appreciation of yen,Japan have to start the active fiscal policy to fill the gap owing to the lack of money supply buffer.However,a lot of money has gone into the real estate and stock market,leading to the asset bubbles.Finally,Japan fell into the deflation and heavily relied on State debt to maintain economic growth.Compared with Japan,United States put the dollar into the RMB supply system again to get the power to affect Chinese economy through foreign exchange.At this point,China is in the financial state Passively.So it is very important that China should prepare to the change of currency and avoid the the failure of Japan by building up the new financial relations between China and the United States.Chinese international financial coordination strategic goals should be seen withdrawing from the dollar world.China also should promote the “panda debt” market steadily and build the RMB circuit to cut off the transmission between the active fiscal policy and the asset bubbles,which can avoid triggering chinese bubble economy inspired by financial risk.