改革开放以来,中国寿险市场的发展有目共睹,寿险需求总体呈现出显著上升趋势,但近两年,部分地区出现了保费收入增长减缓甚至负增长的现象,在一定程度上打击了人们对中国寿险市场发展前景的信心,不利于寿险功能的充分发挥。因此笔者将试图通过国际比较来解释中国保险需求增长波动现象。通过采用面板数据模型,对全球58个国家8个组别和中国31个省份4个组别进行实证检验和结果比较,发现从全球角度来说,收入水平对寿险需求会产生正面影响,但影响程度会随着经济发展水平的提高出现先扬后抑的趋势。我国不同经济水平地区的寿险需求收入弹性走势与全球并不一致,经济相对落后省份的寿险需求收入弹性大于1,远高于全球同经济水平地区;而经济相对发达省份的寿险需求收入弹性迅速下降至1以下,低于全球同经济水平地区。另外,寿险市场发展程度对寿险需求有明显正面影响,但其他影响因素对寿险需求的影响在不同经济水平的地区结果并不一致。
Abstract
China life insurance market has been experiencing rapid development since the reform and opening up in 1980s and the overall life insurance demand has shown a remarkable upward trend since then.However,the premium income growth has slowed down and even turned to be negative in some regions during the recent two years,which to some extent weakens people's confidence for the development of China life insurance market and affects the fulfillment of the risk transfer function of life insurance.This paper attempts to interpret the recent fluctuations in life insurance demand in China based on a perspective of international comparisons.Based on the panel data model,we empirically study and compare eight economic regions of the world and four economic regions of China.Empirical results show that income provides significant promoting effects on life insurance demand,but the promoting effects exhibit an inverted U-shaped growth path as the economy grows.China shows a different growth path from the world.In addition,the development of insur-ance market promotes the life insurance demand,while the influences of other factors are not consistent in different regions.
关键词
寿险需求 /
保险需求收入弹性 /
面板数据
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Key words
Life insurance demand /
Income elasticity of insurance demand /
Panel data
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中图分类号：
F840.622
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参考文献
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脚注
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基金
中国保险学会基金项目“我国寿险需求的增长路径分析——基于国际比较的视角”(项目编号jiaobao2013-11)。
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