Bass模型是研究新产品扩散的基础模型,运用Bass模型分析微信的传播过程,有利于把握及控制微信的扩散轨迹,实现高效率扩散。笔者根据微信推出以来的用户采纳数据,运用非线性最小二乘法进行参数估计,建立了微信用户采纳的Bass扩散模型,并对未来移动互联网产品的扩散研究进行了展望。

Bass innovation diffusion model is widely used in science research. To control and analyze the diffusion trend of Wechat, we can describe WeChat diffusion process with Bass models. Take advantage of Wechat customer data, this paper estimated the model parameter and established the WeChat diffusion model, forecasted the market foreground of WeChat and helped to achieve efficient diffusion. The paper also discussed the diffusion research prospect of Mobile Internet products.