房地产泡沫可能会造成银行系统危机,这种情况下宏观经济往往会受到更大的负面冲击,因此对这一类泡沫进行单独的考察是有意义的。本文将房地产价格大幅上涨、并随即发生银行危机的情形定义为恶性房地产泡沫。在现有理论的基础上,本文提出了一些可能造成恶性房地产泡沫的因素,并基于35个国家1981—2012年的面板数据,运用广义估计方程的回归方法检验了这些因素。这一检验的结果显示,较低的实际利率水平和较高的货币供给增速是解释恶性房地产泡沫出现的显著因素,而人口增长、城镇化发展等衡量刚性需求的因素对恶性房地产泡沫的产生没有解释力。基于该回归结果,本文认为过度宽松的货币政策在恶性房地产泡沫产生的过程中扮演了重要的角色。从政策意义来说,考虑到恶性房地产泡沫可能造成的巨大系统性风险,我国应当避免以货币宽松的方式来推动房地产市场的发展。
Abstract
Housing bubbles may lead to crisis in banking system, in which case economy is usually influenced far more negatively. Therefore, it’s meaningful to look into this special type of bubble. This paper defined bad bubble as the situation of housing price hikes and the banking crises take place later on. Based on existing theories, this paper proposed some possible explanatory factors for bad bubbles, and conducted an empirical test on these factors with panel sample consisted of data from 35 countries during 1981-2012 and regression approach of General Estimation Equation (GEE).The results implied that low real interest and rapid growth of money supply are significant reasons for bad housing bubble, while factors measuring rigid demand, such as population growth and urbanization development, cannot help in explaining it. According to the results, this paper concluded that excessively expansionary money played an important role in emerging of bad housing bubble. The policy implication is that China should avoid promoting the development of housing market by monetary expansion, considering possibility of huge systematic risk caused by bad housing bubbles.
关键词
房地产泡沫 /
银行危机 /
货币供给
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Key words
Housing bubble /
Banking crisis /
Money supply
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中图分类号：
F293.30
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脚注
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基金
国家自然科学基金“稳健投资组合选择的并行最优化算法研究与实现”(项目编号:61272193)。
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