在新经济地理学理论分析框架下,笔者构建了包含制度要素的多地区两部门的经济理论模型,阐明了经济体产出增长率决定于制度变迁的内在机理,认为制度质量的提高,制度对生产要素的产出弹性的影响程度的增强,能对经济增长产生积极的正向影响。随之本文采用2000—2012年的省际面板数据,以市场分配资源程度、国有化程度和腐败程度作为制度变迁的代理变量,利用混合回归、动态面板回归以及面板分位数回归三种不同的计量实证方法,探究了制度变迁与我国经济增长之间的关系。混合回归和动态面板回归结果表明市场分配资源程度与经济增长的关系为正,国有化程度、腐败程度与经济增长的关系为负;分位数回归结果显示对于不同的区域,这些变量与经济增长之间的关系存在一定的异质性:相比于东部发达地区而言,提高中西部地区市场配置资源力度能更大程度地促进经济增长,中西部地区的国有化经济成分对区域经济的抑制作用要比东部地区严重,腐败对所有区域的经济增长均产生了负作用,但程度不同。

Under the theoretical analysis framework of new economic geography, the paper constructs economic theory model for multiple regions and two departments which contains institutional elements, illuminating the internal mechanism that the output growth rate of the economy depends on the institutional changes and considering that the improvement of institutional quality and the enhancement of institutional impact on output elasticity of production factors will produce positive influence on economic growth. Taking the degree of market allocation of resources, degree of nationalization and corruption as the proxy variables of institutional changes, the paper employs provincial panel data from 2000 to 2012 to explore the relationship between institutional changes and economic growth of our country with the empirical methods of mixed regression, dynamic panel regression and quantile regression. The results of mixed regression and dynamic panels' regression show that the relationship between the degree of market allocation of resources and economic growth is positive, but the degrees of nationalization and corruption have negative correlation with economic growth.The results of quantile regression show there exist some heterogeneity in the relationship between institutional variables and economic growth for different areas. Firstly, compared with eastern developed regions, the improvement of market resource allocation in central and western regions would promote economic growth further. Secondly, the nationalization in central and western regions has more serious inhibiting effect on regional economy than that in eastern regions. Lastly, corruption generates negative effect on economic growth of all regions, but with different degrees.