The Impact of Local Government Debt on Urban Economic High-quality Development

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Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics ›› 2023, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (1) : 3-14.

LI Gui-jun, TIAN Zong-bo, SONG Yan-qiu

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Abstract

Local government debt is an important tool linking fiscal and financial policies, so it is of great practical significance to study its impact on high-quality development.This paper constructs an index system of high-quality economic development based on five development concepts, and conducts an empirical test by using the Entropy TOPSIS method to estimate the high-quality economic development level of 279 cities in China from 2006 to 2019 and the government debt data in China estimated by the balance of payments method. The findings are as follows: First, local government debt financing is conducive to the high-quality development of urban economy, and this conclusion passes the robustness test.Second, the impact of local government debt on the high-quality development of urban economy is heterogeneous in different regions and stages.Third, mechanism analysis shows that the expansion of local government debt can significantly improve the amount of industrial structure upgrading, but it fails to enhance the quality of industrial structure upgrading, and is not conducive to the rationalization of industrial structure.Fourth, under different debt stock sizes, taxation and borrowing have nonlinear effects on high-quality economic development.The conclusions provide policy implications for exploring the reform of investment and financing circulation system and promoting the development of high- quality economy.

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Local government debt / Industrial structure / High-quality economic development

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LI Gui-jun, TIAN Zong-bo, SONG Yan-qiu. The Impact of Local Government Debt on Urban Economic High-quality Development[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics, 2023, 0(1): 3-14

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