Does Services Deepening Change the Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks? Based on the Two-sector New Keynesian Model

PDF(1350 KB)

Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics ›› 2022, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (7) : 71-86.

PENG Gang, LI Chao, SHI Wei-wei

Author information +

History +

Abstract

The transition from the manufacturing sector to the service sector is accompanied by the increasingly service-intensive characteristics in their productive structures.It means that service products and manufactured products both are inputted into production for these sectors,but the share of service products raise up over time,which is called by the deepening of services.Since the stickiness of the prices of service products is greater than that of manufactured goods,services deepening increases the stickiness of the prices of the two sectors and the entire economy.Increased price stickiness makes it difficult to adjust prices for two sectors and the entire economy when central bank exerts a monetary policy shock.Furthermore,the response of the real output and inflation to the interest rate shock for two sectors and the whole economy is different from before.We use the 1996-2020 quarterly data to build an SRVAR system which includeds real output,inflation,and nominal interest rates,and find that services deepening changes the effect of monetary shocks.In addition,we show that the reasons of services deepening and numerically simulate how it change the effect of monetary shocks with New Keynesian multisectoral model.Consequently,we give some policy suggestions.

Key words

Services deepening / Monetary policy shock / Productivity heterogeneity / Industrial structure change / Economic fluctuation

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

PENG Gang, LI Chao, SHI Wei-wei. Does Services Deepening Change the Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks? Based on the Two-sector New Keynesian Model[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics, 2022, 0(7): 71-86

References

[1] Galesi A,Rachedi O.Services Deepening and the Transmission of Monetary Policy[J].Journal of the European Economic Association,2018,17(4):1261-1293.
[2] 渠慎宁,吴利学,夏杰长.中国居民消费价格波动:价格粘性、定价模式及其政策含义[J].经济研究,2012(11):88-102.
[3] Nakamura E,Steinsson J.Five facts about Prices:A Reevaluation of Menu Cost Models[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2008,123(4):1415-1464.
[4] 侯成琪,龚六堂.部门价格粘性的异质性与货币政策的传导[J].世界经济,2014(7):23-44.
[5] Burns A.Progress towards Economic Stability[J].The American Economic Review,1960,50(3):444.
[6] Carvalho V,Gabaix X.The Great Diversification and Its Undoing[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(5):1697-1727.
[7] Moro A.The Structural Transformation between Manufacturing and Services and the Decline in the US GDP Volatility[J].Review of Economic Dynamics,2012,15(3):402-415.
[8] Eggers A,Ioannides Y M.The Role of Output Composition in the Stabilization of US Output Growth[J].Journal of Macroeconomics,2006,28(3):585-595.
[9] Burren D,Neusser K.The Role of Sectoral Shifts in the Decline of Real GDP Volatility[J].Macroeconomic Dynamics,2013,17(3):477-500.
[10] 张云,张四灿.产业结构升级对中国经济波动的影响——基于三部门新凯恩斯模型的分析[J].商业经济与管理,2018(7):83-97.
[11] 张四灿,张云.稳健货币政策.产业升级与中国经济波动[J].郑州大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2020(4):57-61.
[12] 张居营,周可.产业结构升级对中国经济波动的“稳定器”效应——基于部门价格粘性异质性视角的动态分析[J].经济问题探索,2019(12):172-180.
[13] Flamini A,Ascari G,Rossi L.Industrial Transformation,Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness,and the Great Moderation[Z].University of Pavia,Department of Economics and Management.Dynare working paper from CEPREMAP,2012.
[14] Vermeulen P,Dias D A,Dossche M,et al.Price Setting in the Euro Area:Some Stylized Facts from Individual Producer Price Data[J].Journal of Money Credit and Banking,2012,44(8):1631-1650.
[15] 霍东星,方显仓.中间品价格对价格粘性的影响——基于动态随机一般均衡模型的研究[J].上海经济研究,2020(4):41-53.
[16] 张成思.中国CPI通货膨胀率子成分动态传导机制研究[J].世界经济,2009(11):3-12.
[17] 鄢莉莉,吴利学.投入产出结构、行业异质性与中国经济波动[J].世界经济,2017(8):3-28.
[18] 何平,陈丹丹,贾喜越.产业结构优化研究[J].统计研究,2014(7):31-37.
[19] 韩永辉,黄亮雄,王贤彬.产业结构优化升级改进生态效率了吗?[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(4):40-59.
[20] 穆怀中,吴鹏.城镇化、产业结构优化与城乡收入差距[J].经济学家,2016(5):37-44.
[21] Bils M,Klenow P J.Some Evidence on the Importance of Sticky Prices[J].Journal of Political Economy,2004,112(5):947-985.
[22] Klenow P J,Kryvtsov O.State-dependent or Time-dependent Pricing:Does It Matter for Recent US Inflation?[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2008,123(3):863-904.
[23] Sims C A.Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time-series Facts - the Effects of Monetary-policy[J].European Economic Review,1992,36(5): 975-1000.
[24] Uhlig H.What Are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output?Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2005,52(2):381-419.
[25] 张雪莹,王聪聪,向丽锦.政府债务、货币政策冲击与宏观经济波动——基于DSGE模型的分析[J].宏观经济研究,2020(10):5-16,70.
[26] 刘玄,王剑.货币政策传导地区差异:实证检验及政策含义[J].财经研究,2006(5):70-79.
[27] 郝大鹏,王博,李力.美联储政策变化、国际资本流动与宏观经济波动[J].金融研究,2020(7):38-56.
[28] Calvo G A.Staggered Prices in a Utility-Maximizing Framework[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,1983,12(3):383-398.
[29] Carvalho C.Heterogeneity in Price Stickiness and the Real Effects of Monetary Shocks[J].Frontiers of Macroeconomics,2006,2(1):1-58.
[30] Bouakez H,Cardia E,Ruge-Murcia F J.The Transmission of Monetary Policy in a Multisector Economy[J].International Economic Review,2009,50(4):1243-1266.
[31] Bouakez H,Cardia E,Ruge-Murcia F J.Durable Goods,Inter-sectoral Linkages and Monetary Policy[J].Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control,2011,35(5):730-745.
[32] Bouakez H,Cardia E,Ruge-Murcia F J.Sectoral Price Rigidity and Aggregate Dynamics[J].European Economic Review,2014,65:1-22.
[33] Imbs J,Jondeau E,Pelgrin F.Sectoral Phillips Curves and the Aggregate Phillips Curve[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2011,58(4):328-344.
[34] Pasten E,Schoenle R,Weber M.The Propagation of Monetary Policy Shocks in a Heterogeneous Production Economy[J].Journal of Monetary Economics,2020,116:1-22.
[35] Baumol W J.Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth:The Anatomy of Urban Crisis[J].The American Economic Review,1967,57(3):415-426.
[36] Baumol W J,Blackman S A B,Wolff E N.Unbalanced Growth Revisited-Asymptotic Stagnancy and New Evidence[J].American Economic Review,1985,75(4):806-817.
[37] Nordhaus W D.Baumol's Diseases:A Macroeconomic Perspective[J].The B.E.Journal of Macroeconomics,2008,8(1):8-31.
[38] 宋建,郑江淮.产业结构、经济增长与服务业成本病——来自中国的经验证据[J].产业经济研究,2017(2):1-13.
[39] 胡绍波,魏建国,郭晨.产业间技术和收入的差异性变化对产业结构变迁的影响[J].经济评论,2019(3):18-29.
[40] Duarte M,Restuccia D.The Role of the Structural Transformation in Aggregate Productivity[J].Quarterly Journal of Economics,2010,125(1):129-173.
[41] Herrendorf B,Rogerson R,Valentinyi A.Two Perspectives on Preferences and Structural Transformation[J].American Economic Review,2013,103(7):2752-2789.
[42] 单强,吕进中,王伟斌,等.中国化泰勒规则的构建与规则利率的估算——基于考虑金融周期信息的潜在产出与自然利率的再估算[J].金融研究,2020(9):20-39.
[43] 田友春.中国分行业资本存量估算:1990—2014年[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2016(6):3-21,76.
[44] 李力,温来成,唐遥,等.货币政策与宏观审慎政策双支柱调控下的地方政府债务风险治理[J].经济研究,2020(11):36-49.
[45] 张佐敏.财政规则与政策效果——基于DSGE分析[J].经济研究,2013(1):41-53.