Research on the Impact of Stock Market Rumors on Analysts' Forecasting Behaviors

PDF(1314 KB)

Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics ›› 2022, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (7) : 61-70.

SUN Jing-hui, SU Ran-ran, QI Bao-lei

Author information +

History +

Abstract

As a kind of unverified but diffused information,stock market rumors exert a negative influence on the healthy and stable development of capital market.We focus on an important information intermediary,namely financial analysts,and investigate the impact of stock market rumors on analysts' forecasting behaviors and the underlying mechanism.We find that the arising of rumors about listed firms lower the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts.Moreover,there is also a negative association between the frequency of rumors and the analysts' forecast accuracy.Our mechanism analyses suggest that stock market rumors impair the accuracy of earnings forecasts mainly via enhancing the difficulty of information processing and distracting the attention of analysts.And the impact of negative rumors on the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts is more pronounced than that of positive rumors.We contribute to the literature and research perspectives regarding to the economic consequences of stock market rumors and the determinants of analysts' forecasting behaviors.Additionally,our findings provide beneficial reference for regulating rumors and further promoting the high-development of Chinese capital market.

Key words

Stock market rumors / Analysts' forecast accuracy / Positive rumors / Negative rumors

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

SUN Jing-hui, SU Ran-ran, QI Bao-lei. Research on the Impact of Stock Market Rumors on Analysts' Forecasting Behaviors[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics, 2022, 0(7): 61-70

References

[1] 彭情,唐雪松.流言招来的“是非”:股市传闻与盈余价值相关性[J].管理世界,2019(3):192-210.
[2] 孟庆斌,李昕宇,王化成.公司传闻、澄清公告与知情交易——来自我国卖空交易的证据[J].管理科学学报,2020(6):90-109.
[3] 杨英杰,周战强,李德峰.论传闻对个人投资者交易决策的影响——基于上市公司传闻情景的实证分析[J].上海大学学报(社会科学版),2018(5):107-120.
[4] Knapp R H.A Psychology of Rumor[J].Public Opinion Quarterly,1944,8(1):22-37.
[5] Allport G W,Postman L J.The Psychology of Rumor[M].New York:Herry Holt,1947:10.
[6] 胡钰.大众传播效果:问题与对策[M].北京:新华出版社,2000:13.
[7] 史青春,周静婷.市场传闻、澄清公告与股价波动[J].现代财经,2015(11):22-36.
[8] 钟惠波,曾奕萌.财经媒体能够说服市场吗?——基于中国股市传闻事件的考察[J].福建师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2019(6):87-98.
[9] 温权.并购传闻与投资者识别[J].上海金融,2019(12):12-18.
[10] 林雁,唐雪松,彭情.公司信息披露质量与传闻澄清公告效果[J].南开经济研究,2019(1):173-193.
[11] 刘春林,张宁.上市公司传闻的澄清效果研究——来自中国证券市场的证据[J].管理科学学报,2012(5):42-54.
[12] Merkley K,Michaely R,Pacelli J.Cultural Diversity on Wall Street:Evidence from Consensus Earnings Forecasts[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2020,70(1):1-24.
[13] Pacelli J.Corporate Culture and Analyst Catering[J].Journal of Accounting and Economics,2019,67(1):120-143.
[14] Fang B,Hope O K.Analyst Teams[J].Review of Accounting Studies,2021,26(2):425-467.
[15] 罗棪心,麻志明,王亚平.券商跟踪海外上市公司对国内分析师盈余预测准确性的影响[J].金融研究,2018(8):190-206.
[16] Davies P L,Canes M.Stock Prices and the Publication of Second-hand Information[J].Journal of Business,1978,51(1):43-56.
[17] Wirama D G,Wiksuana G B,Mohd-Sanusi Z,et al.Price Manipulation by Dissemination of Rumors:Evidence from the Indonesian Stock Market[J].International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues,2017,7(1):429-434.
[18] Byard D A,Shaw K W.Corporate Disclosure Quality and Properties of Analysts' Information Environment[J].Journal of Accounting,Auditing and Finance,2003,18(3):355-378.
[19] 董望,陈俊,陈汉文.内部控制质量影响了分析师行为吗？——来自中国证券市场的经验证据[J].金融研究,2017(12):191-206.
[20] 黄宏斌,李然,毛天琴.上市公司自媒体信息披露、市场行情与分析师盈余预测偏差[J].西安交通大学学报(社会科学版),2020(2):45-56.
[21] 郦金梁,何诚颖,廖旦,等.舆论影响力,有限关注与过度反应[J].经济研究,2018(3):128-143.
[22] Hirshleifer D,Lim S S,Teoh S H.Driven to Distraction:Extraneous Events and Underreaction to Earnings News[J].The Journal of Finance,2009,64(5):2289-2325.
[23] 丁明发,李思雨,王昊等.有限注意力如何影响盈余公告后漂移异象:基于中国A股市场的实证研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2021(6):27-38.
[24] 陆蓉,张斌,李琛.分析师能有效利用资本市场异象吗[J].财贸经济,2021(5):60-75.
[25] Speier C.The Influence of Information Presentation Formats on Complex Task Decision-making Performance[J].International Journal of Human-Computer Studies,2006,64(11):1115-1131.
[26] 褚剑,秦璇,方军雄.中国式融资融券制度安排与分析师盈利预测乐观偏差[J].管理世界,2019 (1):151-166.
[27] 张宗新,吴钊颖.媒体情绪传染与分析师乐观偏差——基于机器学习文本分析方法的经验证据[J].管理世界,2021(1):170-185.
[28] Dechow P M,Sloan R G,Sweeney A P.Detecting Earnings Management[J].The Accounting review,1995, 70(2):193-225.
[29] Kothari S P,Leone A J,Wasley C E.Performance Matched Discretionary Accrual Measures[J].Journal of Accounting and Eonomics,2005,39(1):163-197.
[30] 曹胜,朱红军.王婆贩瓜:券商自营业务与分析师乐观性[J].管理世界,2011(7):20-30.