The Research on the Mechanism of “Fewer Children” on Household Savings Rate

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Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics ›› 2022, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (3) : 81-92.

LIU Peng-fei

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Abstract

“Fewer children”did not reduce household precautionary savings,thus raising household consumption.This paper analyzes the above phenomena theoretically and empirically through constructing a extended three-period overlapping generation model and utilizing the 2013-2017 panel data from China Household Finance Survey(CHFS).We find the“fewer children”has a“crowding-in effect”on household savings rate,and this“crowding-in effect”has differences between urban-rural areas,gender and age.In rural areas,the“crowding-in”elasticity of“fewer children” 's savings is higher than cities and towns,and the increase in education and medical expenditures will exacerbate this gap.The“fewer children”makes male-headed households and householder of working age show the higher propensity of savings,while female-headed households and retired householder are not obvious.We also find that the“crowding-in effect”of“fewer children”on the savings rate of low-income families is significantly higher than that of high-income families.Dynamic numerical simulation results shows that the marginal decreasing propensity to save of the households with low children's dependency ratio is higher than the households with high child dependency ratio when facing a positive impact from the child dependency ratio.Therefore,we have,in this paper,tested and verified the contribution of the“fewer children”for China's high savings rate,and revealed the“fewer children”increases the savings substitution effect of education and medical expenditures.This paper suggests that we should continue to optimize the fertility policy to construct a high-level domestic consumption market.

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“Fewer children” / Household savings rate / Generation overlap model / Quantile regression / Numerical simulation

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LIU Peng-fei. The Research on the Mechanism of “Fewer Children” on Household Savings Rate[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics, 2022, 0(3): 81-92

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