Baseline projections are the premise and guarantee to form and strengthen the budget-policy link, but related researches and reforms are far from sufficient.In practice, the delinking between budget and policy is obvious in China, which is manifested as budget deviating from national strategic focus and policy priorities, resulting in serious consequences, which not only wastes the budget funds, but also weakens the policy sustainability.This paper devotes to demonstrate that the delinking between budget and policy caused by various reasons, such as base approach and statutory expenditure, can be best solved only by applying baseline projections.With the in-depth reform of the budget reports, the effect will be more significant.This paper also demonstrates that the zero-based budget advocated by the mainstream view has limited effect and cannot solve the problem of budget-policy delinking.By clearly distinguishing between policy change and non-policy change,then identifying the fiscal impact of these two changes, baseline projections can systematically strengthen the budget-policy link.Thus, the defects and limitations of base approach and zero-based budget are fundamentally eliminated.Finally, from the perspective of the contents and problems of China's budget reports, this paper puts forward reform suggestions on projecting the consistency between budget variables, macroeconomic variables and policy variables.
Key words
Budget-policy link /
Baseline projections /
Policy change /
Non-policy change /
Budget report
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