Research on Output and Inflation Effects of Fiscal Policy Different in Different Cyclical States

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Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics ›› 2019, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (7) : 3-17.

ZHOU Bo, ZHANG Kai-li

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Abstract

Based on the quarterly data of our country from 1992 to 2017,this paper extends the method of Auerbach and Gorodnichenko(2012)and uses the smooth transition vector autoregressive(STVAR)model,empirically studies the output and inflation effect of China's total and classified government spending and tax policy under different macroeconomic situations.Compared with the STVAR that distinguishes between economic expansion and recession,there will be bias in the output and inflation response of total and classified government spending as well as tax policy in the linear VAR case.When explaining the results with the evolution of China's macroeconomic operation,we can find that choosing appropriate fiscal policy toolkit according to different economic situations.More specifically getting increasing attention to consumption government spending for stabilizing output and inflation.rethinking the operating mode of increasing productive government spending to achieve the short-term output stimulation.reducing macro-tax burden and reversing the high government spending-the high tax revenue model under the precondition of controlling government spen-ding moderately to guide anticipation and hybridize endogenous economy power.

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Fiscal policy / Economic growth / Inflation / Asymmetric effect

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ZHOU Bo, ZHANG Kai-li. Research on Output and Inflation Effects of Fiscal Policy Different in Different Cyclical States[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics, 2019, 0(7): 3-17

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