Government Intervention, the Imbalance of Aggregate Demand Structure and Chinese Economic Fluctuations

PDF(1178 KB)

Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics ›› 2018, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (7) : 89-100.

ZHANG Si-can, ZHANG Yun

Author information +

History +

Abstract

In order to study how the government intervention and interest rate control lead to the imbalance in aggregate demand structure by the investment channel, and to explore the effects of shock's demand structure transmission mechanism on economic fluctuations, we embed the financial accelerator mechanism and government intervetion factors into a basic real bussiness cycle model. The results imply that two mechanisms lead to and intensify the imbalance of aggregate demand structure: the government intervention arouses the enthusiasm for investment by decreasing sensitivity of factor price and increasing the motivation of production scale, and squeezes out consumption. However, the interest rate control reduces returns on household savings and consumption, and decreases capital marginal cost which leads the firm to expand investment.The aggregate demand structure channel has effects on amplifying the exogenous shock by increasing the influence of investment on output. Using numerical simulation, we found that: firstly, the financial accelerator effect strengthens as the extent of imbalance in aggregate demand structure exacerbates; secondly, only promting interest rate liberazation and reducing the government intervention simultaneously can be conducive to rebalancing of aggregate demand structure. Therefore improved aggregate demand structure can reduce the influences of exogenous shocks on economy, thus enhances the stability of macro-economy.

Key words

Economic fluctuation / Imbalance of aggregate demand structure / Government intervention / Interest rate control

Cite this article

EndNote

Ris (Procite)

Bibtex

Download Citations

ZHANG Si-can, ZHANG Yun. Government Intervention, the Imbalance of Aggregate Demand Structure and Chinese Economic Fluctuations[J]. Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics, 2018, 0(7): 89-100

References

[1] 林建浩,王美今. 新常态下经济波动的强度与驱动因素识别研究[J]. 经济研究,2016 (5):27-40.
[2] 黄赜琳. 中国经济周期特征与财政政策效应[J]. 经济研究,2005(6):27-39.
[3] 许伟,陈斌开. 银行信贷与中国经济波动:1993—2005[J]. 经济学(季刊),2009(3):969-994.
[4] 陈晓光,张宇麟. 信贷约束、政府消费与中国实际经济周期[J]. 经济研究,2010(12):48-59.
[5] 陈师,赵磊. 中国经济周期特征与技术变迁——中性、偏向性抑或投资专有技术变迁[J]. 数量经济技术研究,2009(4):19-32.
[6] 孙宁华,曾磊. 间歇式制度创新与中国经济波动:校准模型与动态分析[J]. 管理世界,2013(12):22-31.
[7] 王国静,田国强. 金融冲击和中国经济波动[J]. 经济研究,2014(3):20-34.
[8] 晁钢令,王丽娟. 我国消费率合理性的评判标准——钱纳里模型能解释吗？[J].财贸经济,2009(4):99-103.
[9] 蔡跃洲,王玉霞. 投资消费结构影响因素及合意投资消费区间——基于跨国数据的国际比较和实证分析[J]. 经济理论与经济管理,2010(1):24-30.
[10] Lee H,Syed M,Liu X. Is China Over-Investing and Does It Matter?[R]. IMF Working Paper ,2012.
[11] 吴忠群,张群群. 中国的最优消费率及其政策含义[J]. 财经问题研究,2011(3):9-13.
[12] Abel A B,Mankiw N G,Summers L H,Zeckhauser R J. Assessing Dynamic Efficiency: Theory and Evidence[J]. The Review of Economic Studies,1989,56(1):1-19.
[13] 曹建海,李芳琴. 中国是否存在过度投资?——基于1995—2014年投资效益的测算[J]. 财经问题研究,2016(5):54-61.
[14] Yao Y. The Relationship between China's Export-led Growth and Its Double Transition of Demographic Change and Industrialization[J]. Asian Economic Papers,2011,10(2):52-76.
[15] 李稻葵,刘霖林,王红领. GDP中劳动份额演变的U型规律[J]. 经济研究,2009(11):362-382.
[16] 白重恩,钱震杰. 国民收入的要素分配:统计数据背后的故事[J]. 经济研究,2009(3):27-41.
[17] Huang Y,Wang B. Cost Distortions and Structural Imbalances in China[J]. China &World Economy,2010,18(4):1-17.
[18] 陈彦斌,陈小亮,陈伟泽. 利率管制与总需求结构失衡[J]. 经济研究,2014(2):18-31.
[19] 陈斌开,陆铭. 迈向平衡的增长:利率管制、多重失衡与改革战略[J]. 世界经济,2016(5):29-53.
[20] 柳庆刚,姚洋. 地方政府竞争和结构失衡[J].世界经济,2012(12):3-22.
[21] 王文甫,王德新,岳超云. 地方政府支出有偏性、企业融资约束与经济结构失衡[J]. 财经研究,2016(10):155-178.
[22] 龚刚,林毅夫. 过度反应:中国经济“缩长”之解释[J]. 经济研究,2007(4):53-66.
[23] 王曦,陆荣. 体制演进、政府介入与投资膨胀:不确定性条件下的转型期投资模型[J]. 世界经济,2010(11):3-23.
[24] 曹春方,马连福,沈小秀. 财政压力、晋升压力、官员任期与地方国企过度投资[J]. 经济学(季刊),2014(4):1415-1436.
[25] 詹新宇,方福前. 国有经济改革与中国经济波动的平稳化[J]. 管理世界,2012(3):11-22.
[26] 金中夏,洪浩,李宏瑾. 利率市场化对货币政策有效性和经济结构调整的影响[J]. 经济研究,2013(4):69-82.
[27] Bernanke B S,Gertler M,Gilchrist S. The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework[M]. in Handbook of Macroeconomics,Taylor J and Woodford M (eds),Vol. 1C,Amsterdam: Elsevier,1999:1341-1393.
[28] Christiano L J,Eichenbaum M. Current Real-business-cycle Theories and Aggregate Labor-market Fluctuations[J]. The American Economic Review,1992,82(3):430-450.
[29] 陈彦斌,陈小亮. 中国经济“微刺激”效果及其趋势评估[J]. 改革,2014(7):5-14.
[30] Christensen I,Dib A. The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model[J]. Review of Economic Dynamics,2008,11(1):155-178.
[31] 单豪杰. 中国资本存量K的再估算:1952—2006 年[J]. 数量经济技术经济研究,2008(10):17-31.
[32] 仝冰. 货币、利率与资产价格——基于DSGE模型的分析和预测[D]. 北京:北京大学博士学位论文,2010.
[33] 栗亮,刘元春. 经济波动的变异与中国宏观经济政策框架的重构[J]. 管理世界,2014(12):38-50.
[34] 张四灿,王飞,王兴. 中国消费过度波动的因素分析[J]. 现代财经(天津财经大学学报),2014(3):13-22.