After China's economy enteredthe “New Normal”, GDP growth gets slow, deficits rise, and the debt ratio increases. In the background of the economic downturn, the rising of debt ratio will expose macroeconomy to high risk. It is necessary to explore the optimal fiscal policy. Through a dynamic stochastic ge-neral equilibrium model, we simulate the decline of TFP, social investment and consumer spending which are considered as the three different aspects of the economic downturn. We comparatively analyze the simulation results of 31 kinds of fiscal repayment rules. While taking advantage of fluctuations in the relevant variables to build evaluation index system, we find the best fiscal repayment rule on the basis of a further study of its cha-racteristics and variation. The study find: the sensitivity of the government to debt ratio determines the optimal rule; under the different impacts, the government optimal debt repayment rules are different; the cost of adjusting debt through government spending is lower than the other financial instruments; impact of different types with the same magnitude cause the different fluctuations of the debt ratio. Finally, we proposed some recommendations.
Key words
Fiscal repayment rule /
DSGE model /
Government debt /
Risk of debt
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